Prediction
PancakeSwap Prediction is a fun and simple decentralized prediction market.
Predict whether BNB, BTC, or ETH price will rise or fall – guess correctly to win!
Platforms
Section titled “Platforms”You can play PancakeSwap Prediction on:
- Desktop/ dApp: PancakeSwap Prediction Guide
- Telegram Mini App (BNBUSD only): Prediction Bot
Summary: How It Works
Section titled “Summary: How It Works”- Choose an asset to bet on: Currently available on BNB Chain; markets on zkSync Era and Arbitrum One are temporarily paused.
- Pick UP or DOWN: Predict if the asset price will be higher or lower when the “LIVE” phase ends (each round = 5 minutes).
- Place your bet amount: Any BNB amount
- Lock in your position: Once placed, your bet cannot be changed.
- Win or lose:
- If you chose UP, you win if the Closed Price > Locked Price at the end of the round.
- If you chose DOWN, you win if the Closed Price < Locked Price at the end of the round.
Mechanics & Fees
Section titled “Mechanics & Fees”- Supported Chains: BNB Chain (live); zkSync Era, Arbitrum One (paused)
- Round frequency: Every 5 minutes (rolling rounds).
- Participation fee: 3% of each round’s total prize pool, a portion of which goes to CAKE buybacks.
- Winnings: Claim anytime after results are finalized.
- Payouts are based on the ratio of bets in each pool:
- Payout Ratio (UP Pool) = (Total value of both pools ÷ Value of UP Pool)
- Payout Ratio (DOWN Pool) = (Total value of both pools ÷ Value of DOWN Pool)
- See: FAQ for worked example
Outcomes
Section titled “Outcomes”- Win: You share the total pot with other winners (minus 3% fee)
- Lose: You lose your entire bet amount
Special Cases:
- Tie (Locked Price = Closed Price): House wins all bets.
- If there are no opposing bets:
- If you win: reclaim 97% of your initial bet (3% fee applies).
- If you lose: forfeits your full bet to the house.
- Cancelled: e.g. Oracle failure, users are refunded their initial bet amount
Price Feeds (Oracles)
Section titled “Price Feeds (Oracles)”| Chain | Markets | Purpose | Oracle |
|---|---|---|---|
| BNB Chain | BNBUSD, BTCUSD, ETHUSD, CAKEUSD (paused) | Sets the Lock Price and Closed Price (updated ~ up to 20 seconds). | Chainlink |
| BNB Chain | All | Powers the live chart on the UI (for reference only). | Binance / TradingView Feed |
ChainLink Oracle
Section titled “ChainLink Oracle”- Used for the Lock price and End price of each prediction market round. This updates in intervals of up to 20 seconds.
- Our prediction contract uses the ChainLink Oracle price feed on BNB Chain to set the prices used to dictate whether a user has won or not.
- Used for the “Chainlink” chart on the interface.
Binance
Section titled “Binance”- Used for real-time price updates on the PancakeSwap prediction market interface.
- Used for the “TradingView” chart on the interface.
Since we’re using two different price feeds, the real-time price updates from Binance and the ChainLink Oracle price may differ by a small amount. However, they shouldn’t vary significantly.
Contract Addresses
Section titled “Contract Addresses”BNB Chain: